Were there more LGBT votes for Trump or for Biden?
The Washington Post said the New York Times report that more LGBT votes went to Donald Trump in the past November 2020 elections had no bearing.
Based on initial exit polls, the Times said Trump received 28 percent of LGBT votes going against Joe Biden, as compared to 14 percent when he went up against Hillary Clinton.
However, the Post said that LGBT voters “played a decisive role in swing states in handling the presidency to Joe Biden.”
Last year, the Williams Institute reported that people who identify themselves as LGBT comprise 4.5 percent of the US population. What’s more, at least 9 million LGBT American adults are registered to vote.
More LGBT votes during the 2020 elections
The broadsheet said the share of LGBT voters that voted in the 2020 elections was bigger as compared to previous elections.
In the 2020 elections, exit pollsters noted a jump of 7 or 8 percent of voters who identified as LGBT from 3 to 5 percent in 2018.
One reason for the increase is probably due to more younger voters voting. Gallup Organization reported 8.2 percent of millennials identify as LGBT, as compared to only 2.4 percent of baby boomers.
On one hand, voters who identify openly as LGBT have a tendency to vote Democratic in the past elections.
On the other hand, this election gave Trump the highest percentage of LGBT support as against any Republican presidential candidate– double from what he received in 2016.
Breaking down the results of two surveys
The results came from the National Exit Poll conducted by Edison, whose estimates are still preliminary, and the AP VoteCast, conducted by the research organization NORC at the University of Chicago.
The National Exit Poll was done in-person with early voters and on Electon Day, with absentee voters over the phone. Their result showed that 64 percent of LGBT voters went for Biden while 27 percent favored Trump.
Meanwhile, the AP conducted large probability-based surveys as well as opt-in online panels. They reported that 73 percent of LGBT voters went to Biden while 25 percent went to Trump.
Jumping off from that, the Washington Post compared estimates of the percent of the LGBT electorate across the states and nationally documented in both the National Exit Poll and AP.
They also looked at its relationship to the percent of adults who identify as LGBT. They estimated that the numbers would be roughly comparable percentage of LGBT voters and LGBT adults across the US.
Findings on the LGBT votes across the states
Based on this analysis, the broadsheet noted that LGBT voters may have helped to helped to tilt some swing states for Biden, like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
For example, Biden won in Georgia with a narrow 49.5 percent against Trump’s 49.3 percent. AP VoteCast reported that 53 percent of non-LGBT voters voted for Trump.
In Georgia, LGBT people comprised 9 percent of the electorate. This means 88 percent of LGBT voters had to choose Biden for the latter to win.
Something similar happened to other states, the Post reported. What’s more, if LGBT voters had stayed home, Trump “might well have won the 2020 presidential election,” they said.
“When races are close, LGBT Americans, who tend to vote in high numbers and have been reliable Democratic supporters, can make the difference in favor of Democratic candidates,” they concluded.